Executive Summary
International higher education this week reflects heightened volatility across mobility, recruitment, and policy alignment. UK institutions face acute visa-processing delays affecting January intakes, while Scotland signals a contrastingly open stance toward international students. Canada’s sharp contraction in international enrolment underscores the fiscal risks of restrictive visa caps, even as US state-level immigration measures begin to constrain universities’ staffing and research capacity. In Asia-Pacific, China’s diversification of transnational education partnerships away from traditional Western destinations highlights geopolitical and market realignment. Europe offers a partial counterbalance, with the Netherlands reversing plans to restrict English-taught provision. Collectively, these developments point to growing divergence between national and sub-national strategies, increasing operational complexity for globally engaged institutions.
Key themes: mobility disruption, recruitment recalibration, national openness signals, transnational education diversification
Regions covered: UK, EU, North America, Asia-Pacific
What is new and why it matters
UK Home Office visa delays disrupt January intake
Regions: UK
Impact: Admin/PS, IntEd Mgmt
Extended visa-processing delays into February forced universities to withdraw CAS to remain compliant, despite some flexibility from the Home Office on acceptance timelines.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Creates a trade-off between compliance and enrolment stability, with financial and reputational consequences.
- International offices: Requires revised intake planning, clearer communication, and contingency pathways for affected students.
- EdTech and AI: Increases demand for predictive enrolment analytics and automated compliance monitoring.
Sources:
Scotland rejects proposed UK HE levy to stay globally competitive
Regions: UK, Scotland
Impact: IntEd Mgmt, Admin/PS
The Scottish government rejected a levy on international student recruitment and paired the decision with new measures positioning Scotland as welcoming to global talent.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Signals policy divergence within the UK that may influence recruitment strategies.
- International offices: Allows differentiated messaging highlighting Scotland’s openness.
Sources:
Canada’s international enrolment falls by nearly 300,000 students
Regions: Canada
Impact: IntEd Mgmt, Admin/PS
ICEF analysis shows international student numbers falling from over one million in early 2024 to around 700,000 by late 2025 following visa caps and tighter compliance.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Creates major revenue and housing pressures, forcing rapid adjustment.
- International offices: Accelerates diversification into alternative recruitment markets.
- EdTech and AI: Highlights need for market intelligence and demand-modelling tools.
Sources:
US states move to restrict H-1B hiring at public universities
Regions: United States
Impact: Research, Admin/PS, IntEd Mgmt
Following Texas, Florida lawmakers are considering banning the use of H-1B visas in public universities, threatening international staffing.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Risks undermining research capacity and global academic competitiveness.
- International offices: Complicates recruitment and retention of international faculty.
- EdTech and AI: May increase reliance on remote collaboration and digital research infrastructure.
Sources:
China expands TNE partnerships beyond traditional destinations
Regions: China, Global
Impact: L&T, IntEd Mgmt
Two-thirds of newly approved Chinese transnational education programmes now involve partners outside the traditional ‘Big Four’ destinations.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Creates new partnership opportunities for non-traditional markets.
- International offices: Increases importance of due diligence and QA alignment.
Sources:
Netherlands reverses course on English-taught programmes
Regions: Netherlands, EU
Impact: L&T, IntEd Mgmt
A new coalition government halted planned funding cuts and reversed proposals to scrap some English-taught degrees.
Why it matters:
- Universities: Reduces uncertainty and stabilises international recruitment outlook.
- International offices: Restores confidence for EU-bound international students.
Sources:
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Brief date: 2026-02-09
